Managing Uncertainty: Using Dynamic Scenarios to Improve Results

30% Strategy Pitfalls in Managing Uncertainty • Lack of peripheral vision • Exercises and examples • Importance of stakeholders • Overconfidence • Quiz and discussion 30% Building Future Scenarios • Method to generate four scenarios by identifying the top two uncertainties to create a 2x2 matrix • Examples from other industries 25% Developing Key Success Factors for the Future • Develop the Key Success Factors (KSFs) that a company must have in order to survive and thrive in EACH of the generated scenarios • Determine those KSFs that are robust across scenarios • Examples from other industries • Instructions for using KSF template to calculate the weights of the KSFs 15% Strategic Ramifications - Real Options and Dynamic Monitoring • Real options analysis • The use of the key success factors to develop a strategic plan • Continuous monitoring • Dynamic nature of strategic planning • Methods of monitoring

Seminar Description

The uncertainties we face often obscure the best, most exciting opportunities available to us. Seeing beyond such uncertainties requires a very different approach to strategic planning and implementation. Dr. Pearson's workshop will teach you how to: (1) develop and analyze multiple project scenarios; (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility; (3) implement those strategies using an options approach; and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. This integrated methodology draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty.

Guide to Participant Selection

Department

Admin

Distrib

Engr

Finc

H.R.

Legal

Mktng

IT

Opr

Plng

Pchsg

R&D

Sales

Senior Executive
(Pres, Exec & Sr VP) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Executive
(VP & Gen'l Mgr)
2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1

Senior Managers
(Div & Reg. Mgrs) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Middle Managers
& Superintendents 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

APPLICABILITY:
1 indicates primary target audience.
2 indicates a good fit if the level of material is appropriate.
3 indicates (in the opinion of the institute and the faculty) very limited applicability.